Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 2.054230 2.160336 2.273876 2.405324 2.554522 2.720124 2.920057
2025-06-15 1.943741 2.082365 2.237132 2.425307 2.651730 2.920860 3.274222
2025-06-22 1.814364 1.964170 2.135549 2.350122 2.617931 2.951054 3.415422
2025-06-29 1.751623 1.915016 2.106348 2.352918 2.672379 3.089535 3.712054
2025-07-06 1.673812 1.841437 2.040688 2.302389 2.650164 3.120153 3.858235
2025-07-13 1.645409 1.824631 2.041801 2.334230 2.736366 3.306639 4.273047
2025-07-20 1.633618 1.826526 2.065031 2.394903 2.866132 3.573113 4.892770
2025-07-27 1.600131 1.798933 2.048083 2.399094 2.914274 3.720308 5.347229
2025-08-03 1.569665 1.773356 2.031769 2.402035 2.959459 3.868041 5.859344
2025-08-10 1.519011 1.719682 1.975585 2.344925 2.907155 3.840575 5.967997
2025-08-17 1.486887 1.688741 1.948245 2.327088 2.914102 3.918401 6.366714
2025-08-24 1.458795 1.661940 1.925139 2.313664 2.926307 4.006926 6.840778
2025-08-31 1.428981 1.633101 1.899682 2.297763 2.937184 4.103105 7.433969
2025-09-07 1.413383 1.622296 1.898176 2.316876 3.007511 4.330785 8.689613
2025-09-14 1.369872 1.572916 1.841290 2.249148 2.923411 4.220868 8.551838
2025-09-21 1.352003 1.557341 1.830973 2.251902 2.962087 4.384117 9.801090
2025-09-28 1.319525 1.521176 1.790462 2.206017 2.910908 4.337564 9.986745
2025-10-05 1.312491 1.519139 1.797973 2.235053 2.996737 4.626552 12.736320
2025-10-12 1.313601 1.528071 1.821269 2.290199 3.137063 5.096656 20.351571
2025-10-19 1.299576 1.515692 1.813161 2.294012 3.179386 5.322398 30.174090
2025-10-26 1.285942 1.503437 1.804726 2.296685 3.219585 5.556849 60.911371
2025-11-02 1.257718 1.470243 1.764542 2.244819 3.144865 5.418370 56.141218
2025-11-09 1.240453 1.452021 1.746043 2.228593 3.142559 5.513392 145.978283